Ironman Florida Goals & Expectations

I have been in Panama City Beach for a little over a day now and it has rained almost the entire time. Hopefully it will clear off soon so I can get a practice swim in the Gulf, and take my bike for a final test ride to make sure everything is in working order. Although my main goal for this race is to just finish before the time cut-off at midnight, the following is what I'm planning for if I'm lucky enough to have my best case scenario race.

Swim - 1 hour 30 minutes
The swim time is difficult for me to predict because of so many factors that I'm unfamiliar with. The idea of a mass start with as many as 2,800 athletes swimming on top of each other makes me a little anxious, but a group that large will create a natural current that should help pull me along. Unless I change my mind at the last minute I think I'm going to line up toward the right hand side in the middle to back of the pack. I want to avoid most of the full contact swimming and the bunching up that occurs at the first turn buoy. If I stay wide enough I can swim around the crowds at the first turn and not get caught up in the traffic. I do need to check the direction of the current though so I don't end up fighting it and wasting energy. Overall I want to keep a comfortable steady pace and conserve as much energy as possible to use later in the day.

Transition #1 - 15 minutes
I expect the changing tents to be packed with people so I will probably opt for a spot off to the side instead of waiting for a seat to open up. I'm planning on changing into bike shorts and a jersey for the long ride with the additions of gloves and arm warmer sleeves until the temps warm up a little.

Bike - 6 hours 30 minutes (17.23 mph average)
I want to start off a lot slower than I normally do and only pick up the pace much later on the course. The wind forecast right now is for it to be coming out of the north so that will mean more headwinds early, crosswinds during the middle, and tailwinds late. I plan on taking two double strength liquid nutrition bottles and supplementing that with energy bars and bananas.

Transition #2 - 15 minutes
I'm planning on changing into tri shorts and a tri jersey and taking a hat with me. Time wise it probably won't take the full 15 minutes but I can use the extra time as a buffer.

Run - 5 hours 30 minutes (12:30 minute mile pace)
Running is the best of the three events for me, but after a long day of doing the other two I'm not sure how much of an advantage it will be. I plan on running as much of the distance as possible and incorporating some brief walk breaks during each of the aid stations to make sure I get the necessary nutrition in me during each mile. A 12:30 mile pace is a lot slower than I normally run but adding the walk breaks will increase my average time. If I have a good race then I will be able to limit the duration of the walk breaks and could possibly have a lot faster time.

Overall Time - 14 hours
This is what I'll plan on right now, but I have to race with what the day gives me. I'll make adjustments to my time goals during the race if I need to, but as I said earlier I'll be happy as long as I finish before midnight.

Weather Forecast
Right now the forecast is for sunny skies with a low of 37 degrees and a high of 66 degrees. The winds should be between 10 to 15 mph out of the NNW and the humidity around 50-60%. It will be a cold start so a water temp of around 70 degrees will feel good compared to the air temp. The air temps should start to warm up a few hours after the start but will begin to drop again once the sun goes down.